Is Global Warming truly happening?

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is a cyclical event that is in a constant state of flux. Global temperature fluctuations began millions of years ago as earth temperature changes shaped the amount of ice covering much of the world. We are currently enjoying a temporary reprieve from the deep freeze known as “the little ice age” that took place between the years 1400-1800 AD. A “temporary” warm period took place during the medieval period and lasted 400 years. Small-scale temperature cycles of about 40 years exist within larger-scale cycles of 400 years, which in turn exist inside still larger scale cycles of 20,000 years, and so on.

 

.Earth Temps: A.D. 0 to 1950

Approximately every 100,000 years Earth’s climate warms up temporarily. These warm periods, called interglacial periods, appear to last approximately 15,000 to 20,000 years before regressing back to a cold ice age climate. There are well known and explainable Astronomical Causes that are responsible for these cyclical climate changes. Without getting into too many mathematical details, the 3 major cycles are defined by variations of the distance between the sun and earth due to orbital movements:

  • “Short” 21,000 year cycle: Earth’s combined tilt and elliptical orbit around the Sun (precession of the equinoxes )
  • “Medium” 41,000 year cycle: Cycle caused by the +/- 1.5° wobble in Earth’s orbit ( tilt )
  • “Long” 100,000 year cycle: Variations in the shape of Earth’s elliptical orbit
  • ( cycle of eccentricity)

As illustrated in the figure below, over the past 800,000 years the Earth has undergone major swings in warming and cooling at approximately 100,000 year intervals, interrupted by minor warming cycles at shorter intervals. This represents periods of glacial expansion, separated by distinct but relatively short-lived periods of glacial retreat and warmer earth.

Earth Temps Over Last 800,000 Years

Except for two relatively brief inter-glacial episodes, one peaking about 125,000 years ago and the other beginning about 18,000 years ago (the long “100,000” year cycle), the Earth has been under an “ice spell” for the last 160,000 years as shown in the figure below.

Earth Temps Over Last 160,000 Years

It is evident that we are approaching the “end” of the current “short” 21,000 years “global warming” cycle, and should expect a “global cooling” period during the next 100,000 years or so. This period will include some temperature fluctuations caused by “short” and “medium” temperature cycles, but for the most part it will be significantly colder than our current stage. The ice cap size will increase significantly, sea levels will drop by 100’ or more, and the average air temperature will most likely drop by 3°C or more.

Global climate cycles of warming and cooling have been a natural phenomenon for hundreds of thousands of years, and it is unlikely that these cycles of dramatic climate change will stop anytime soon. We currently enjoy a warm Earth. Can we count on a warm Earth forever? The answer is most likely… no. In fact, based on historical evidence, the likelihood of a “global cooling” period in the next 1000-2000 years is very high.

Since the climate has always been cyclical and will likely continue as long as current earth orbital cycle remains intact, it is highly recommended to focus our resources on preparing for global cooling and the inevitable consequences of reduction in ocean levels, colder temperatures, and increased amounts of ice and precipitation, instead of crippling the U.S. economy by forcing major reduction in man-made carbon emissions to the atmosphere in order to achieve small temporary reductions in global warming.

14 Responses to Is Global Warming truly happening?

  1. I was pretty convinced that global warming was man-made and happening until I read that the polar ice caps grew a lot in 2013. Now I’m not so sure. I do know that we are ruining this planet in many ways, slowly but surely.

    • You hit it right on the nail. That is precisely what is happening. We are slowly taking advantage pf the ecosystem and it will bite us back in the end.

  2. I compare this to the economical cycle. Every 11-12 years, there is a recession. The recession comes a couple of years after a complete boom. But the Depression – or other big financial collapses, were the anomaly. Typically huge collapses happen because of excess. I would say that our planet is suffering because of human excess. Sure, the Earth warms after 100,000 years, but that doesn’t mean that man-made global warming isn’t happening.

  3. I used to think that global warming was purely because of humans’ faults, until I read about these climate cycles. I do think though, humans more or less contribute to the change in climate… how big, we don’t know for sure.

  4. LOVE this, David, and I completely agree after our hellish Polar Vortex winter here in MN, where our heating bills doubled and tripled. Wood heating stove going in soon, in order to prepare economically for the next 100,000 years. :-)

  5. Interesting discussion David. While it is true that past global climate has had cyclical periods of cooling and warming, the rate of increased CO2 in the atmosphere is unprecedented. Small increases in air and sea temperatures have caused massive glacier and polar ice cap melt that is accelerating the warming effect. In addition the destruction and burning of forests worldwide has eliminated an important carbon sink and dumped billions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere. Want to see something absolutely alarming? Check out this comparison of the polar ice cap from NASA: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/thick-melt.html

    • Thanks for sharing your truthful insight as well as the interactive website. Although it is quite interesting, it is also somewhat disturbing and scary. The big question is, what can we do to get the ice back?

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